Chapter 04 of 04 / 第 04 章 · Future Importance

Future research · Demand & qualification未来研究 · 需求与认证

Future research / proposed questions

From a supply map
to a delivery question.

Connect the places that can make magnets with the applications that can accept them. Then ask what equipment, time and investment would make that connection resilient.

Loading research scope…

01 / Two maps, one research boundary

Conceptual workflow · no asserted shipments

A pair of map pins is not a supply contract. Facility capability, material flows, equipment purchases and finished-product transport require separate evidence.

02 / Three connected questions

Proposed research · not new results

03 / Compare outcomes, test assumptions

Scenario sensitivity & Pareto analysis

Cost is one axis.
Usable delivery is another.

Compare feasible candidate portfolios under the same budget and deadline. Vary demand, substitution, yields, construction, qualification and finite inventories. Keep alternatives that cannot improve one outcome without worsening another.

Start with the existing scenario laboratory ↗

Candidate portfolios / proposed comparison

Domestic capabilityQualified importsMultiple eligible suppliersFinite inventories

Lifecycle cost

Capital, operation, qualification, carrying cost and transport—with their data gaps.

Unmet or late qualified demand

Accepted magnet tonnes by deadline and quantity × time waiting.

This is a proposed analysis, not a measured frontier. The current model compares a bounded set of policies in scenario credits; it is neither a nationwide optimizer nor a dollar-calibrated capital model.

04 / Evidence needed to make it concrete

Source packages retain their status
Boundaries, hypotheses and missing inputs