{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-10-07", "status": "proposed research directions; evidence and assumptions separated", "scope": "Linked selected supply-stage and U.S. application evidence; not a complete national factory census or calibrated cost optimizer.", "questions": [ { "id": "demand", "title_en": "Downstream demand & qualification", "title_zh": "下游需求与客户认证", "question_en": "Where is usable magnet demand, and which chosen applications face disruption or switching constraints?", "question_zh": "合格可用磁体的需求在哪里？哪些已选定的应用面临中断或切换约束？", "description_en": "Separate the magnet or rotor, motor/actuator maker, integrator, application factory and final use. A household, industrial facility, business or infrastructure project may be the endpoint. Annual units or announced factory capacity cannot establish magnet mass without the actual design and material bill.", "description_zh": "区分磁体或转子、电机/执行器厂、集成商、应用工厂与最终用途。终端可能是家庭、工业设施、企业或基础设施项目。没有实际设计及材料清单，年产数量或公布产能不能推出磁体用量。", "status": "proposed research question", "inputs": [ { "label_en": "Documented plant/product, buyer role and dated relationship", "label_zh": "具名厂点/产品、采购角色及注明时间的关系", "basis": "evidence", "source_ids": [ "APP_ABBCONTRACT", "NEO_NARVA", "APP_YASKAWASERVO" ] }, { "label_en": "Actual annual output and planned/design capacity, kept separate", "label_zh": "实际年度产量与计划/设计产能分别记录", "basis": "gap", "source_ids": [] }, { "label_en": "Magnet chemistry/mass per unit, PM design share and accepted suppliers", "label_zh": "每件产品磁体材质/质量、永磁路线份额及合格供应商", "basis": "gap", "source_ids": [] }, { "label_en": "Scenario demand and qualification/switching time", "label_zh": "情景需求及认证/切换时间", "basis": "assumption", "source_ids": [] } ], "outputs": [ { "label_en": "Architecture-specific demand ranges with visible gaps", "label_zh": "注明缺口的具体技术路线需求区间" }, { "label_en": "Unmet accepted magnet demand and delivery delays", "label_zh": "未满足的合格磁体需求及交付延误" } ], "limitations_en": [ "No blanket NdFeB dependence for all EVs, robots, wind turbines or AI equipment.", "No named supplier route, OEM bill of materials or receiving plant is inferred from company/product adoption." ], "limitations_zh": [ "不将所有电动车、机器人、风机或 AI 设备都视为依赖 NdFeB。", "不根据公司或产品采用关系推断具名供应路线、整机材料清单或收货厂点。" ], "source_ids": [ "APP_ABBCONTRACT", "NEO_NARVA", "APP_YASKAWASERVO", "US_RIVIAN_FY25", "US_RIVIAN_10K", "US_RIVIAN_Q326", "US_LUCID_10K", "US_LUCID_FINAL25", "US_AGILITY_2026", "US_GXO_DIGIT", "US_BMW_OUTPUT25", "US_BMW_IX5", "US_BMW_DEC26" ], "case_ids": [ "rivian-normal-output", "lucid-amp1-scope", "agility-robofab-end-use", "bmw-spartanburg-architecture" ] }, { "id": "readiness", "title_en": "Equipment & capability readiness", "title_zh": "设备与能力就绪度", "question_en": "Which process or acceptance stage limits delivery, and what capital and time could change it?", "question_zh": "哪项工序或验收环节限制交付？哪些资本与时间投入可能改变它？", "description_en": "Link the material process to its required equipment and utilities, then identify the equipment maker and actual manufacturing or service location. An operating plant, pilot, construction project and customer-qualified line represent different readiness states.", "description_zh": "将材料工序连接到所需设备及公用工程，再确认设备制造商及实际生产或服务地点。运行工厂、中试、在建项目及客户认证产线是不同的就绪状态。", "status": "proposed research question", "inputs": [ { "label_en": "Process, equipment capability and verified operating/planned status", "label_zh": "工序、设备能力及已核实的运行/计划状态", "basis": "gap", "source_ids": [ "CONSARC_VULCAN", "ULVAC_ORIGIN", "ULVAC_QA", "EMAT_CONTRACT", "EMAT_PROSPECTUS" ] }, { "label_en": "Comparable machine quotation, capacity, yield, service and spares", "label_zh": "可比设备报价、产能、收率、服务及备件", "basis": "gap", "source_ids": [] }, { "label_en": "Site conditions, utilities, construction, commissioning and qualification", "label_zh": "厂址条件、公用工程、建设、调试及客户认证", "basis": "gap", "source_ids": [] }, { "label_en": "Assumed build, ramp and acceptance delays in the existing model", "label_zh": "现有模型中的假设建设、爬坡及验收时间", "basis": "assumption", "source_ids": [] } ], "outputs": [ { "label_en": "Stage-specific readiness and bottleneck sensitivity", "label_zh": "分环节就绪状态与瓶颈敏感性" }, { "label_en": "Time until customer-usable output", "label_zh": "到客户可用产出所需的时间" } ], "limitations_en": [ "Equipment purchases, material inputs and finished-component transport are different transactions.", "Announced equipment or project capacity is not current qualified output.", "No verified national U.S. investment total or exact plant equipment bill is available here.", "Selected equipment examples establish their stated milestone only; none supplies a calibrated nationwide equipment cost or customer-qualified throughput." ], "limitations_zh": [ "设备采购、材料投入及成品部件运输是不同交易。", "公布的设备或项目产能不等于当前合格产出。", "此处没有已核实的全美投资总额或工厂精确设备清单。", "已选设备实例仅证明所披露的节点；不能标定全国设备成本或客户合格产出。" ], "source_ids": [ "CONSARC_VULCAN", "ULVAC_ORIGIN", "ULVAC_QA", "EMAT_CONTRACT", "EMAT_PROSPECTUS" ], "case_ids": [ "consarc-vulcan-commissioned", "ulvac-production-geography", "ulvac-korea-orders", "ulvac-outstanding-commitment" ] }, { "id": "frontier", "title_en": "Cost–security frontier", "title_zh": "成本与供应安全的前沿比较", "question_en": "Under the same budget and delivery deadline, which feasible choices reduce cost, unmet demand or delay?", "question_zh": "在相同预算及交付期限下，哪些可行选择减少成本、短缺或延误？", "description_en": "Compare domestic investment, qualified allied imports, multiple accepted suppliers and finite inventory for one defined product and application. Test Chinese/allied equipment price assumptions rather than assuming one country is cheaper. Retain the options that cannot improve one objective without worsening another; then test whether the frontier survives uncertainty.", "description_zh": "针对一个明确的产品及应用，比较本土投资、合格盟友进口、多个已认可供应商与有限库存。检验中国/盟友设备价格的假设，而不是预设某国更便宜。保留无法在不损害另一目标的前提下继续改进的选择，再检验不确定性是否改变前沿。", "status": "proposed research question", "inputs": [ { "label_en": "Matched product/equipment delivered lifecycle cost and cost date", "label_zh": "可比产品/设备的到货全生命周期成本及成本日期", "basis": "gap", "source_ids": [] }, { "label_en": "Verified transport, duties, service/spares and outage exposure", "label_zh": "核实的运输、税费、服务/备件及停机暴露", "basis": "gap", "source_ids": [] }, { "label_en": "A common decision date, fixed supply reference, budget and deadline", "label_zh": "共同决策日期、固定供应基准、预算及期限", "basis": "assumption", "source_ids": [] }, { "label_en": "Finite inventories, build/ramp/qualification and consistent shocks", "label_zh": "有限库存、建设/爬坡/认证及一致的冲击", "basis": "assumption", "source_ids": [] } ], "outputs": [ { "label_en": "Pareto comparison: lifecycle cost versus unmet qualified tonnes", "label_zh": "帕累托比较：生命周期成本与未满足的合格磁体吨数" }, { "label_en": "Late-demand burden and time to qualified delivery", "label_zh": "需求等待负担及合格交付时间" }, { "label_en": "Sensitivity to prices, lead times, yields and disruption duration", "label_zh": "对价格、交期、收率及中断时长的敏感性" } ], "limitations_en": [ "Existing intervention credits are abstract scenario units, not calibrated U.S. dollars.", "A frontier for a bounded product/program is not a nationwide optimum.", "Do not sum overlapping project capital disclosures or compare incompatible product/cost bases." ], "limitations_zh": [ "现有干预积分是抽象情景单位，而不是校准后的美元。", "特定产品或项目的前沿比较不等于全国最优解。", "不累计重叠的项目资本披露，也不比较不兼容的产品或成本口径。" ], "source_ids": [ "EMAT_PROSPECTUS", "EMAT_CONTRACT" ], "case_ids": [ "ulvac-outstanding-commitment" ] } ], "sources": [ { "id": "APP_ABBCONTRACT", "title": "ABB announces Noveon supply agreement for industrial motors", "url": "https://new.abb.com/news/detail/128298/abb-selects-noveon-magnetics-for-long-term-agreement-to-supply-us-made-rare-earth-magnets", "date": "2025-08-14", "type": "primary corporate disclosure", "access": "public", "checked": "2026-10-07" }, { "id": "APP_YASKAWASERVO", "title": "Yaskawa SGMXG Sigma-X servo motor NdFeB technology", "url": "https://www.yaskawa.com/products/motion/sigma-x-servo-products/rotary-servo-motors/sgmxg", "date": "undated current page", "type": "primary corporate disclosure", "access": "public", "checked": "2026-10-07" }, { "id": "NEO_NARVA", "title": "Neo Narva commercial qualified magnet deliveries", "url": "https://www.neomaterials.com/neo-advances-commercial-production-magnet-facility/", "date": "2026-09-14", "checked": "2026-10-07", "type": "primary operator/institution disclosure", "access": "public" }, { "id": "CONSARC_VULCAN", "title": "Consarc/Vulcan commissioned strip caster", "url": "https://inductothermgroup.com/consarc-corporation-and-vulcan-elements-partner-to-advance-u-s-rare-earth-magnet-production-with-commissioning-of-new-strip-casting-furnace/", "date": "2025-06-04", "publisher_type": "primary manufacturer/operator/government/SEC", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "locator": "Article body", "verification_note": "Names New Jersey manufacture and Research Triangle Park installation.", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Primary source opened and checked for the bounded case; not a full equipment market audit." }, { "id": "ULVAC_ORIGIN", "title": "Japan production for rare-earth magnet vacuum melting furnaces", "url": "https://www.ulvac.co.jp/en/news/20260507a/index.html", "date": "2026-05-07", "publisher_type": "primary manufacturer/operator/government/SEC", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "locator": "Background / Japan production table", "verification_note": "Existing China production; planned Japan start is not verified actual start.", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Primary source opened and checked for the bounded case; not a full equipment market audit." }, { "id": "ULVAC_QA", "title": "ULVAC IR Seminar Q&A", "url": "https://ir.ulvac.co.jp/en/ir/newsrelease/PressRelease2026040805/main/0/link/%28EN%29QA_for_IR_Seminer_2026.pdf", "date": "2026-04-08", "publisher_type": "primary manufacturer/operator/government/SEC", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "locator": "PDF p2, item4", "verification_note": "Identifies Chigasaki production structure; manufacturer capacity equivalence is not customer-qualified magnet output.", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Primary source opened and checked for the bounded case; not a full equipment market audit." }, { "id": "EMAT_CONTRACT", "title": "ULVAC Korea equipment contract W20260330-001-01", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866226/000121390026056264/ea029072001ex10-1.htm", "date": "2026-05-13; filed2026-05-14", "publisher_type": "primary manufacturer/operator/government/SEC", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "locator": "Contract pp1–5", "verification_note": "Price redacted; KRW denomination and DDP Korea terms public.", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Primary source opened and checked for the bounded case; not a full equipment market audit." }, { "id": "EMAT_PROSPECTUS", "title": "Evolution Metals & Technologies prospectus", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1866226/000121390026097822/ea0304499-01.htm", "date": "2026-09-08 filing; commitment as of 2026-06-30", "publisher_type": "primary manufacturer/operator/government/SEC", "accessed": "2026-10-07", "locator": "Equipment Supply Contracts pp164–165; commitments p184; Note 19", "verification_note": "Eight contracts;13sets; outstanding commitment is not total equipment price.", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Saved SEC primary HTML/text checked against equipment table, contractual obligations and Note 19; live web fetch unavailable." }, { "id": "US_RIVIAN_10K", "title": "Rivian 2025 Form 10-K: Normal capacity and Amazon EDV sales", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000008/rivn-20251231.htm", "source_date": "2026-02-12", "source_date_precision": "day", "claim_period": "year ended 2025-12-31", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "", "date": "2026-02-12", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Selected primary claim independently opened and checked; not a full U.S. factory dataset audit." }, { "id": "US_RIVIAN_FY25", "title": "Rivian Q4 and full year 2025 production at Normal", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000187417826000007/ex-991pressrelease4q25earn.htm", "source_date": "2026-02-12", "source_date_precision": "day", "claim_period": "calendar year 2025", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "", "date": "2026-02-12", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Selected primary claim independently opened and checked; not a full U.S. factory dataset audit." }, { "id": "US_RIVIAN_Q326", "title": "Rivian Q3 2026 production and delivery figures", "url": "https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/rivian-releases-q3-2026-production-and-delivery-figures", "source_date": "2026-10-02", "source_date_precision": "day", "claim_period": "quarter ended 2026-09-30", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "Browser text extractor returned no article body; direct public operator HTML contains the article and posted date. Snapshot retained locally.", "date": "2026-10-02", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Saved direct Rivian operator HTML checked for production, Normal location and October 2 posted date; text extractor returned no body." }, { "id": "US_LUCID_10K", "title": "Lucid 2025 Form 10-K: AMP-1 and powertrain manufacturing", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811210/000162828026011053/lcid-20251231.htm", "source_date": "2026-02-24", "source_date_precision": "day", "claim_period": "year ended 2025-12-31", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "", "date": "2026-02-24", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Selected primary claim independently opened and checked; not a full U.S. factory dataset audit." }, { "id": "US_LUCID_FINAL25", "title": "Lucid Q4/full-year 2025 financial results with revised production", "url": "https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial", "source_date": "2026-02-24", "source_date_precision": "day", "claim_period": "calendar year 2025", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "Final 17,840 replaces January preliminary 18,378; company-global, not plant-specific.", "date": "2026-02-24", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Selected primary claim independently opened and checked; not a full U.S. factory dataset audit." }, { "id": "US_AGILITY_2026", "title": "Digit 5 and current RoboFab assembly operations", "url": "https://www.agilityrobotics.com/content/agility-unveils-digit-5-humanoid-robot-built-for-cooperatively-safe-work-at-scale", "source_date": "2026-09-15", "source_date_precision": "day", "claim_period": "Digit 4 current deployments; Digit 5 expected 2027", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "", "date": "2026-09-15", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Selected primary claim independently opened and checked; not a full U.S. factory dataset audit." }, { "id": "US_GXO_DIGIT", "title": "GXO multi-year RaaS agreement and SPANX deployment", "url": "https://gxo.com/news_article/gxo-signs-industry-first-multi-year-agreement-with-agility-robotics/", "source_date": "2024-06-27", "source_date_precision": "day", "claim_period": "2024 commercial deployment", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "", "date": "2024-06-27", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Selected primary claim independently opened and checked; not a full U.S. factory dataset audit." }, { "id": "US_BMW_OUTPUT25", "title": "BMW Spartanburg 2025 production and exports", "url": "https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/usa/article/detail/T0456008EN_US?language=en_US", "source_date": "2026-03-05", "source_date_precision": "day", "claim_period": "calendar year 2025", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "", "date": "2026-03-05", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Selected primary claim independently opened and checked; not a full U.S. factory dataset audit." }, { "id": "US_BMW_IX5", "title": "BMW iX5 Gen6 EESM/ASM traction architecture", "url": "https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/usa/article/detail/T0458814EN_US/the-new-bmw-x5-and-ix5?language=en_US", "source_date": "2026-06-30", "source_date_precision": "day", "claim_period": "iX5 program; Q1 2027 U.S. market introduction", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "", "date": "2026-06-30", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Selected primary claim independently opened and checked; not a full U.S. factory dataset audit." }, { "id": "US_BMW_DEC26", "title": "BMW new X5: iX5 production scheduled December 2026", "url": "https://www.bmwgroup.com/en/news/general/2026/the-new-bmw-x5.html", "source_date": "2026", "source_date_precision": "year", "claim_period": "December 2026 planned start", "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "access": "public", "provenance": "primary operator / regulator / statistical publisher", "note": "Date only known at year precision from current operator article.", "date": "2026", "checked": "2026-10-07", "review_basis": "Selected primary claim independently opened and checked; not a full U.S. factory dataset audit." } ], "packages": [ { "id": "application-observations", "title_en": "Anonymous practitioner perspectives and public context", "title_zh": "匿名从业者视角与公开背景", "status": "anonymous observations; public examples separately sourced", "summary_en": "Buyer roles, specialist sourcing and qualification questions. Anonymous observations establish no factory identity, supplier route or quantitative model input.", "summary_zh": "采购角色、专业采购与认证问题。匿名观察不建立工厂身份、供应路线或定量模型输入。", "source_ids": [ "APP_ABBCONTRACT", "NEO_NARVA", "APP_YASKAWASERVO" ] }, { "id": "bounded-equipment-cases", "title_en": "Equipment milestones, not a cost model", "title_zh": "设备节点，而非成本模型", "status_en": "Selected primary sources checked · final evidence packet", "status_zh": "已核实所选原始来源 · 最终证据资料包", "summary_en": "Four cases connect process, maker and manufacturing/seller/installation geography. Orders, planned production and commissioned machinery remain distinct. Open Question B to inspect the cases.", "summary_zh": "四个实例连接工序、制造商及制造/卖方/安装地点，区分订单、计划生产及已调试设备。选择问题B查看细节。", "question_id": "readiness", "source_ids": [ "CONSARC_VULCAN", "ULVAC_ORIGIN", "ULVAC_QA", "EMAT_CONTRACT", "EMAT_PROSPECTUS" ], "data_file": "data/equipment-readiness.json" }, { "id": "us-demand-cases", "title_en": "Production, design rate and end use", "title_zh": "产量、设计产能与终端用途", "status_en": "Four source-backed cases · final source packet QA passed", "status_zh": "四个有来源的实例 · 原始资料包最终审查已通过", "summary_en": "Selected U.S. examples distinguish plant production, company-global totals, installed/design capacity and the consuming business. No count is converted to magnet tonnes. Open Question A to inspect scopes.", "summary_zh": "已选美国实例区分工厂产量、公司全球总量、安装/设计产能及使用方企业。不将产品计数换算为磁体吨数。选择问题A查看口径。", "question_id": "demand", "source_ids": [ "US_RIVIAN_FY25", "US_RIVIAN_10K", "US_RIVIAN_Q326", "US_LUCID_10K", "US_LUCID_FINAL25", "US_AGILITY_2026", "US_GXO_DIGIT", "US_BMW_OUTPUT25", "US_BMW_IX5", "US_BMW_DEC26" ], "data_file": "data/us-application-evidence.json" } ], "boundaries_en": [ "Proposed questions are not findings. Actual source anchors stay separate from assumed demand, costs, capacity and shipping.", "The supply map traces materials/process relationships; the application map locates documented downstream examples. A gap remains a gap between them.", "Permanent magnets, NdFeB, SmCo and magnet-free alternatives remain distinct.", "The existing model retains conserved elemental and purchased-product accounts, carrier iron counted once, fixed supply reference, an empty-pipeline choice and common decision/deadline.", "Selected equipment evidence is context, not a calibrated simulation input. Equipment purchases, production feedstock shipments and finished-magnet delivery remain separate transactions.", "No matched China/Japan/U.S. equipment-price ordering is verified; price differences are hypotheses requiring comparable delivered lifecycle quotations." ], "boundaries_zh": [ "研究问题是提案，而不是结论。已核实的厂点与假设需求、成本、产能及运输保持分开。", "供应地图追踪材料及工序关系；应用地图展示下游实例。两者之间没有证据的环节仍保持为空缺。", "永久磁体、NdFeB、SmCo 及无磁体替代路线分别处理。", "现有模型保留元素及采购产品守恒、载体铁只计一次、固定供应基准、空管线选项及共同决策/期限。", "所选设备证据是背景，不是经过标定的模拟输入。设备采购、生产原料运输及成品磁体交付保持为不同交易。", "尚未核实中日美可比设备价格排序；价格差异是需要可比到货全生命周期报价检验的假设。" ], "equipment_evidence_review": { "status": "Bounded primary-source check; not a full review of the external packet", "checked": "2026-10-07", "packet": "data/equipment-readiness.json", "packet_schema": "1.0", "packet_structural_validation": "12 equipment records, 34 source references; validation errors empty. This does not establish every claim.", "selected_source_ids": [ "CONSARC_VULCAN", "ULVAC_ORIGIN", "ULVAC_QA", "EMAT_CONTRACT", "EMAT_PROSPECTUS" ], "scope": "Four selected equipment cases. Project comparison, tariffs, all-in cost assumptions and unverified manufacturer entries are not imported.", "packet_status": "External source packet final validated; the frontend integration retains its bounded source checks.", "display_scope": "Four introductory cases plus all twelve equipment-stage records, all five project comparisons, the separate aggregate outstanding commitment and the complete 34-source packet registry. No quote derivation, overlap summation or calibrated capital model." }, "equipment_cases": [ { "id": "consarc-vulcan-commissioned", "title_en": "A commissioned strip caster", "title_zh": "已完成调试的甩带炉", "stage_en": "Melting / strip casting", "stage_zh": "熔炼 / 甩带", "maker_en": "Consarc / Inductotherm Group", "maker_zh": "Consarc / Inductotherm Group", "status_en": "Supplier-reported operational installation · 2025-06-04", "status_zh": "供应商披露已运行的设备 · 2025-06-04", "summary_en": "Consarc reports that its vacuum-induction strip caster was delivered and commissioned at Vulcan Elements. This is an equipment installation, not a measured annual supply of customer-qualified magnets.", "summary_zh": "Consarc 披露其真空感应甩带炉已交付并在 Vulcan Elements 完成调试。这是设备安装的证据，而不是客户合格磁体年供应量。", "geographies": [ { "place_en": "New Jersey, United States", "place_zh": "美国新泽西州", "role_en": "Supplier explicitly identifies engineering and manufacture", "role_zh": "供应商明确披露设计及制造地点" }, { "place_en": "Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, United States", "place_zh": "美国北卡罗来纳州 Research Triangle Park", "role_en": "Installation; release dateline also names Durham", "role_zh": "安装地点；新闻日期行同时列出 Durham" } ], "price_en": "Machine price, procurement lead time and achieved annual alloy throughput are undisclosed.", "price_zh": "设备价格、采购交期及实际合金年产出未披露。", "limitations_en": [ "Commissioning does not establish downstream powder, pressing, coating or customer qualification." ], "limitations_zh": [ "设备调试完成不能证明下游制粉、压制、涂层或客户认证已完成。" ], "source_ids": [ "CONSARC_VULCAN" ] }, { "id": "ulvac-production-geography", "title_en": "Manufacturing geography with a planned milestone", "title_zh": "制造地点与计划中的节点", "stage_en": "Vacuum melting-furnace supply", "stage_zh": "真空熔炼炉供应", "maker_en": "ULVAC", "maker_zh": "ULVAC", "status_en": "Existing China production; Japan start announced as planned", "status_zh": "已有中国生产；日本启动为已公布计划", "summary_en": "ULVAC names a Shenyang equipment base in its April IR Q&A. Its May 7 release adds Japan production, with September 2026 as the planned start and up to 12 furnaces/year. The checked announcement does not confirm startup.", "summary_zh": "ULVAC 四月 IR 问答列出沈阳设备基地。五月七日公告增加日本生产，计划于2026年九月启动，最高每年12台炉。已核实公告没有确认正式启动。", "geographies": [ { "place_en": "Shenyang, China", "place_zh": "中国沈阳", "role_en": "Equipment-production base named in April7 IR Q&A", "role_zh": "四月七日 IR 问答披露的设备生产基地" }, { "place_en": "Chigasaki, Kanagawa, Japan", "place_zh": "日本神奈川县茅崎", "role_en": "Dedicated melting-furnace factory being redesigned; planned production", "role_zh": "改造中的专用熔炼炉工厂；计划生产" } ], "price_en": "No matched-country machine quotation is established.", "price_zh": "没有建立跨国家可比的设备报价。", "limitations_en": [ "12 units/year is equipment-production capacity, not magnet tonnes/year.", "These corporate locations do not identify the serial manufacture origin of a separate Korean order." ], "limitations_zh": [ "每年12台是设备生产能力，不是磁体年产量。", "这些企业地点不能确定另一个韩国订单中每台设备的制造来源。" ], "source_ids": [ "ULVAC_ORIGIN", "ULVAC_QA" ] }, { "id": "ulvac-korea-orders", "title_en": "An order is earlier than usable production", "title_zh": "下单早于可用生产", "stage_en": "Melting / vacuum thermal processing", "stage_zh": "熔炼 / 真空热处理", "maker_en": "ULVAC Korea · named contract seller", "maker_zh": "ULVAC Korea · 合同中的卖方", "status_en": "Eight contracts signed May 13, 2026; delivery / commissioning unverified", "status_zh": "2026年五月十三日签订八份合同；交付及调试尚未核实", "summary_en": "EMAT discloses 13 sets across eight contracts for melting and vacuum thermal furnaces. The published Magcaster contract requires delivery in Korea by November 30, before full installation and commissioning. A seller address or dispatch point is not a build site.", "summary_zh": "EMAT 披露八份合同共13套熔炼及真空热处理炉。公开的 Magcaster 合同要求十一月三十日前在韩国交付，完整安装及调试在此之后。卖方地址或发货地不等于制造厂址。", "geographies": [ { "place_en": "Pyeongtaek, South Korea", "place_zh": "韩国平泽", "role_en": "Contract seller address; not assigned as serial build origin", "role_zh": "合同卖方地址；不能指定为设备制造来源" }, { "place_en": "Republic of Korea; buyer plant unspecified", "place_zh": "韩国；买方工厂未明确", "role_en": "Required equipment destination", "role_zh": "合同规定的设备目的地" }, { "place_en": "Dalian, China", "place_zh": "中国大连", "role_en": "Dispatch reference in prospectus summary; not a proved factory address", "role_zh": "招股书摘要中的发货地；不是已证明的工厂地址" } ], "price_en": "Individual prices are redacted and denominated in KRW.", "price_zh": "个别价格以韩元计价，但已被遮蔽。", "limitations_en": [ "Orders do not establish delivered or commissioned equipment.", "The disclosed thermal models do not resolve every sintering-versus-aging process detail.", "No U.S. receiving plant or usable magnet throughput is assigned." ], "limitations_zh": [ "订单不能证明设备已经交付或完成调试。", "披露的热处理型号没有解决所有烧结与时效的具体工艺差别。", "不指定美国收货工厂或可用磁体产出。" ], "source_ids": [ "EMAT_CONTRACT", "EMAT_PROSPECTUS" ] }, { "id": "ulvac-outstanding-commitment", "title_en": "A financial disclosure with a limited denominator", "title_zh": "分母有限的财务披露", "stage_en": "Equipment procurement / financial commitment", "stage_zh": "设备采购 / 财务承诺", "maker_en": "Evolution Metals & Technologies → ULVAC Korea", "maker_zh": "Evolution Metals & Technologies → ULVAC Korea", "status_en": "Outstanding contractual commitment as of June 30, 2026", "status_zh": "截至2026年六月三十日的未履行合同承诺", "summary_en": "EMAT reports approximately $15.9 million outstanding under eight equipment contracts covering 13 sets. It is a remaining obligation at a date, not total purchase consideration, factory capital cost or a unit price.", "summary_zh": "EMAT 披露八份设备合同、共13套设备，未履行承诺约1590万美元。这是特定时点的剩余义务，不是总采购金额、工厂资本成本或单台价格。", "geographies": [], "price_en": "Do not divide by 13 to infer a per-machine price. Individual contract prices remain redacted.", "price_zh": "不能除以13推算单台价格。个别合同价格仍被遮蔽。", "limitations_en": [ "No national capital total or China/Japan/U.S. price ordering follows from this figure.", "Compare matched specifications, delivery, installation, service and acceptance before cost conclusions." ], "limitations_zh": [ "这个数字不能推出全国资本总额，也不能判断中日美设备价格排序。", "比较成本前需匹配规格、交付、安装、服务及验收条件。" ], "source_ids": [ "EMAT_PROSPECTUS", "EMAT_CONTRACT" ] } ], "application_cases": [ { "id": "rivian-normal-output", "case_kind": "application", "plant_id": "rivian_normal", "sector_id": "ev_traction", "title_en": "Rivian Normal: production is not capacity", "title_zh": "Rivian Normal：产量不等于产能", "stage_en": "Vehicle / drive-unit manufacturing context", "stage_zh": "整车 / 驱动单元制造背景", "maker_en": "Rivian · manufacturing operator", "maker_zh": "Rivian · 制造运营商", "status_en": "Actual production and installed-rate disclosure; separate periods", "status_zh": "实际生产与安装产能披露；分开时间口径", "summary_en": "Rivian reports 42,284 vehicles made at Normal in 2025. Its year-end capacity is up to 215,000/year at full rate over multiple shifts. Q3 2026 production is 19,751 vehicles for that quarter—not an annual figure.", "summary_zh": "Rivian 披露 Normal 工厂2025年生产42,284辆。年末安装产能在多班次满负荷下最高每年215,000辆。2026年第三季度产量19,751辆是当季数字，不是全年数字。", "geographies": [ { "place_en": "Normal, Illinois, United States", "place_zh": "美国伊利诺伊州 Normal", "role_en": "Manufacturing facility named by the operator", "role_zh": "运营商披露的制造工厂" } ], "metrics": [ { "label_en": "Actual production", "label_zh": "实际生产", "value": 42284, "unit_en": "vehicles", "unit_zh": "辆", "period_en": "Calendar 2025", "period_zh": "2025全年", "scope_en": "Normal plant", "scope_zh": "Normal 工厂", "source_ids": [ "US_RIVIAN_FY25" ] }, { "label_en": "Installed annual rate", "label_zh": "安装年产能", "value": 215000, "unit_en": "vehicles/year, up to", "unit_zh": "辆/年，最高", "period_en": "2025 year-end disclosure", "period_zh": "2025年末披露", "scope_en": "Full-rate multi-shift Normal; upgraded late September/October 2025", "scope_zh": "Normal 多班次满负荷；2025年九月末/十月升级", "source_ids": [ "US_RIVIAN_10K" ] }, { "label_en": "Actual quarter production", "label_zh": "实际季度生产", "value": 19751, "unit_en": "vehicles", "unit_zh": "辆", "period_en": "Q3 2026", "period_zh": "2026年第三季度", "scope_en": "Normal plant; not annualized", "scope_zh": "Normal 工厂；不年化", "source_ids": [ "US_RIVIAN_Q326" ] } ], "material_note_en": "Exact magnet material, mass per eligible product, design mix, supplier allocation and customer acceptance remain unreported here. No magnet-tonnage conversion is made.", "material_note_zh": "具体磁体材质、每件合格产品的磁体质量、设计占比、供应商分配及客户验收尚未在此披露。不换算磁体吨数。", "limitations_en": [ "Full-year output and an upgraded year-end rate do not establish a like-for-like annual utilization ratio.", "R2, R1 and van line maxima are alternative allocations, not additive capacities." ], "limitations_zh": [ "全年产量与升级后的年末产能不能建立同口径的年度利用率。", "R2、R1和货车产线的最大值是可调分配，不可相加。" ], "source_ids": [ "US_RIVIAN_FY25", "US_RIVIAN_10K", "US_RIVIAN_Q326" ] }, { "id": "lucid-amp1-scope", "case_kind": "application", "plant_id": "lucid_amp1", "sector_id": "ev_traction", "title_en": "Lucid: plant capacity, global output", "title_zh": "Lucid：工厂产能、全球产量", "stage_en": "Vehicle / powertrain manufacturing context", "stage_zh": "整车 / 动力系统制造背景", "maker_en": "Lucid · AMP-1 manufacturing operator", "maker_zh": "Lucid · AMP-1 制造运营商", "status_en": "Installed plant capacity; revised company-global production", "status_zh": "安装的工厂产能；修订后的公司全球产量", "summary_en": "Lucid reports 90,000 vehicles/year installed at AMP-1. Its final 2025 production count is 17,840 across the company, replacing 18,378 preliminary. The company-wide count is not assigned to AMP-1.", "summary_zh": "Lucid 披露 AMP-1 安装产能为每年90,000辆。公司最终2025年产量为全球17,840辆，替代初步的18,378辆。公司总量不指定给 AMP-1。", "geographies": [ { "place_en": "Casa Grande, Arizona, United States", "place_zh": "美国亚利桑那州 Casa Grande", "role_en": "AMP-1 vehicle and dedicated powertrain manufacturing; Saudi assembly is separate", "role_zh": "AMP-1 整车及专用动力系统制造；沙特装配另行区分" } ], "metrics": [ { "label_en": "Installed annual rate", "label_zh": "安装年产能", "value": 90000, "unit_en": "vehicles/year", "unit_zh": "辆/年", "period_en": "2025 year-end disclosure", "period_zh": "2025年末披露", "scope_en": "AMP-1 site capacity", "scope_zh": "AMP-1 工厂产能", "source_ids": [ "US_LUCID_10K" ] }, { "label_en": "Final revised production", "label_zh": "最终修订产量", "value": 17840, "unit_en": "vehicles", "unit_zh": "辆", "period_en": "Calendar 2025", "period_zh": "2025全年", "scope_en": "Company-global; not plant actual", "scope_zh": "公司全球；非工厂实际产量", "source_ids": [ "US_LUCID_FINAL25" ] }, { "label_en": "AMP-1 annual actual", "label_zh": "AMP-1 实际年度产量", "value": null, "unit_en": "vehicles", "unit_zh": "辆", "period_en": "Calendar 2025", "period_zh": "2025全年", "scope_en": "Not separately reported in the checked records", "scope_zh": "所核实记录未单独披露", "source_ids": [] } ], "material_note_en": "Exact magnet material, mass per eligible product, design mix, supplier allocation and customer acceptance remain unreported here. No magnet-tonnage conversion is made.", "material_note_zh": "具体磁体材质、每件合格产品的磁体质量、设计占比、供应商分配及客户验收尚未在此披露。不换算磁体吨数。", "limitations_en": [ "Do not divide company-global output by AMP-1 capacity or plot them as plant utilization.", "Final production revision concerns internal validation; neither the count nor vehicle acceptance proves a specific magnet supplier or part qualification." ], "limitations_zh": [ "不能用公司全球产量除以 AMP-1 产能，也不能将两者画为工厂利用率。", "最终产量修订与内部验证有关；车辆计数或验收不证明特定磁体供应商或部件认证。" ], "source_ids": [ "US_LUCID_10K", "US_LUCID_FINAL25" ] }, { "id": "agility-robofab-end-use", "case_kind": "application", "plant_id": "agility_robofab", "sector_id": "robot_automation", "title_en": "RoboFab: a design rate and a real end user", "title_zh": "RoboFab：设计产能与真实终端用户", "stage_en": "Robot assembly → business warehouse use", "stage_zh": "机器人装配 → 企业仓库使用", "maker_en": "Agility Robotics · robot OEM; GXO · logistics operator", "maker_zh": "Agility Robotics · 机器人整机厂；GXO · 物流运营商", "status_en": "RoboFab assembly and commercial Digit deployment documented", "status_zh": "RoboFab 装配与 Digit 商业部署有记录", "summary_en": "RoboFab is designed for up to 10,000 Digit robots/year at full capacity; actual annual output is undisclosed. GXO documents commercial Digit use in its SPANX warehouse program. A business workflow is the end use, without an identified magnet supplier.", "summary_zh": "RoboFab 满产设计能力最高每年10,000台 Digit 机器人，实际年度产量未披露。GXO 记录其 SPANX 仓库项目中的 Digit 商业使用。终端是企业工作流，但未确认磁体供应商。", "geographies": [ { "place_en": "Salem, Oregon, United States", "place_zh": "美国俄勒冈州 Salem", "role_en": "RoboFab robot assembly", "role_zh": "RoboFab 机器人装配" }, { "place_en": "Flowery Branch, Georgia, United States", "place_zh": "美国佐治亚州 Flowery Branch", "role_en": "GXO Digit 4 deployment described by Agility; business end user", "role_zh": "Agility 披露的 GXO Digit 4 部署；企业终端用户" } ], "metrics": [ { "label_en": "Designed annual rate", "label_zh": "设计年产能", "value": 10000, "unit_en": "robots/year, up to", "unit_zh": "台/年，最高", "period_en": "September 2026 disclosure", "period_zh": "2026年九月披露", "scope_en": "RoboFab at full capacity; not realized output", "scope_zh": "RoboFab 满产设计；非已实现产量", "source_ids": [ "US_AGILITY_2026" ] }, { "label_en": "Annual actual output", "label_zh": "实际年度产量", "value": null, "unit_en": "robots", "unit_zh": "台", "period_en": "2025/2026", "period_zh": "2025/2026", "scope_en": "Not disclosed in the checked records", "scope_zh": "所核实记录未披露", "source_ids": [] } ], "material_note_en": "Exact magnet material, mass per eligible product, design mix, supplier allocation and customer acceptance remain unreported here. No magnet-tonnage conversion is made.", "material_note_zh": "具体磁体材质、每件合格产品的磁体质量、设计占比、供应商分配及客户验收尚未在此披露。不换算磁体吨数。", "limitations_en": [ "Commercial warehouse deployment does not reveal actuator topology, magnet chemistry or kilograms per robot.", "Cumulative totes moved and announced robot orders are not annual robot output." ], "limitations_zh": [ "仓库商业部署不披露执行器架构、磁体材质或每台机器人磁体质量。", "累计搬运料箱与公布的机器人订单不是机器人年度产量。" ], "source_ids": [ "US_AGILITY_2026", "US_GXO_DIGIT" ] }, { "id": "bmw-spartanburg-architecture", "case_kind": "application", "plant_id": "bmw_spartanburg", "sector_id": "ev_traction", "title_en": "Spartanburg: architecture changes the question", "title_zh": "Spartanburg：技术架构改变问题", "stage_en": "Mixed vehicle assembly / planned BEV program", "stage_zh": "混合车型装配 / 计划中的纯电项目", "maker_en": "BMW · Spartanburg manufacturing operator", "maker_zh": "BMW · Spartanburg 制造运营商", "status_en": "2025 actual X-model production; iX5 start planned December 2026", "status_zh": "2025年 X 车型实际生产；iX5 计划2026年十二月启动", "summary_en": "Spartanburg made 412,799 BMW X models in 2025, including combustion and plug-in hybrid models. The planned iX5 uses rear EESM and front ASM traction: no permanent traction magnets in that specified architecture. This is not a claim about every auxiliary motor.", "summary_zh": "Spartanburg 2025年生产412,799辆 BMW X 车型，包括燃油与插电混动车型。计划中的 iX5 使用后轴 EESM 和前轴 ASM 驱动，此指定架构不使用永磁牵引电机，但不能外推到所有辅助电机。", "geographies": [ { "place_en": "Spartanburg area, South Carolina, United States", "place_zh": "美国南卡罗来纳州 Spartanburg 地区", "role_en": "Mixed-model production; iX5 production is a later planned milestone", "role_zh": "混合车型生产；iX5 生产是较后的计划节点" } ], "metrics": [ { "label_en": "Actual X-model production", "label_zh": "X 车型实际产量", "value": 412799, "unit_en": "vehicles", "unit_zh": "辆", "period_en": "Calendar 2025", "period_zh": "2025全年", "scope_en": "All X models, including ICE/PHEV; not BEV output", "scope_zh": "全部 X 车型，包括燃油/插混；非纯电产量", "source_ids": [ "US_BMW_OUTPUT25" ] }, { "label_en": "Planned iX5 production start", "label_zh": "计划 iX5 生产启动", "value": null, "unit_en": "annual output not yet assigned", "unit_zh": "尚未指定年度产量", "period_en": "December 2026 planned", "period_zh": "计划2026年十二月", "scope_en": "EESM rear / ASM front architecture; not an annual volume", "scope_zh": "后轴 EESM / 前轴 ASM 架构；非年产量", "source_ids": [ "US_BMW_DEC26", "US_BMW_IX5" ] } ], "material_note_en": "Do not convert all 412,799 X models into rare-earth traction-magnet demand. The specified iX5 traction architecture avoids permanent magnets; auxiliary and other-program material requirements remain separate.", "material_note_zh": "不能将全部412,799辆 X 车型换算为稀土牵引磁体需求。指定的 iX5 驱动架构不采用永磁体；辅助电机及其他项目的材料要求另行核实。", "limitations_en": [ "December 2026 is a planned start, not achieved annual output as of October 7.", "No iX5 annual volume, incoming drive-unit factory/batch or magnet material bill is assigned." ], "limitations_zh": [ "截至十月七日，2026年十二月仍是计划启动，而非已实现的年度产量。", "不指定 iX5 年产量、驱动单元来料工厂/批次或磁体材料清单。" ], "source_ids": [ "US_BMW_OUTPUT25", "US_BMW_IX5", "US_BMW_DEC26" ] } ], "application_evidence_review": { "status": "Four selected primary-source cases checked; source packet final date/unit/scope QA passed", "checked": "2026-10-07", "packet": "data/us-application-evidence.json", "selected_source_ids": [ "US_RIVIAN_FY25", "US_RIVIAN_10K", "US_RIVIAN_Q326", "US_LUCID_10K", "US_LUCID_FINAL25", "US_AGILITY_2026", "US_GXO_DIGIT", "US_BMW_OUTPUT25", "US_BMW_IX5", "US_BMW_DEC26" ], "scope": "Four cases only. Full packet contains15 named sites; this page does not display or claim to independently audit every field. No national magnet-tonnage estimate or model input added.", "plot_boundary": "Metric ledgers retain site/global, actual/capacity and annual/quarter scope. No unmatched utilization ratios or bars.", "packet_validation": { "source_references_checked": true, "ids_unique_checked": true, "units_dates_scope_checked": true, "checked_at": "2026-10-07", "geographic_routes_checked": true, "manual_scope_notes": "Actual/capacity/plan/rate/company-wide/quarterly/cumulative values remain separately typed; no annualization, additive flexible capacities, ton-unit conversion or magnet-tonnage extrapolation." }, "display_scope": "Four introductory cases plus all five sector-demand contexts, all fifteen site dossiers and the complete final packet source registry. The full index preserves original source wording; no mass extrapolation or model calibration." }, "evidence_indexes": { "demand": { "data_file": "data/us-application-evidence.json", "scope_en": "All five sector-demand contexts and fifteen site dossiers from the final bounded U.S. packet. Primary source records retain publication dates separately from dates checked. No product-to-magnet mass extrapolation.", "scope_zh": "最终美国有限资料包中的全部五类行业需求背景和十五个地点资料。来源发布日期与核查日期分别保留，不由产品数量推断磁体质量。", "context_titles": { "us_ev_sales_2025": { "title_en": "EVs: U.S. sales, not domestic factory output", "title_zh": "电动车：美国销量，不是美国工厂产量" }, "us_robot_installations_2025": { "title_en": "Robotics: annual installations, not magnet manufacture", "title_zh": "机器人：年度安装量，不是磁体制造量" }, "us_motor_installed_stock_context": { "title_en": "Industrial motors: installed stock and electricity", "title_zh": "工业电机：在用存量与耗电量" }, "us_wind_plan_context": { "title_en": "Wind: planned GW, unknown permanent-magnet share", "title_zh": "风电：计划吉瓦数，永磁占比未知" }, "us_household_washer_factory_context": { "title_en": "Appliances: one factory’s undated annual-rate statement", "title_zh": "家电：单厂未注明日期的年度速率表述" } }, "site_aliases": { "gm_factory_zero": "gm_factory_zero", "gm_toledo": "gm_toledo", "tesla_fremont": "tesla_fremont", "tesla_texas": "tesla_austin", "rivian_normal": "rivian_normal", "lucid_amp1": "lucid_amp1", "hyundai_metaplant": "hyundai_metaplant", "abb_auburn_hills": "abb_auburn_hills", "abb_fort_smith": "abb_fort_smith", "agility_robofab": "agility_robofab", "kollmorgen_radford": "kollmorgen_radford", "maxon_taunton": "maxon_taunton", "whirlpool_clyde": "whirlpool_clyde", "bmw_spartanburg": "bmw_spartanburg", "gxo_spanx_flowery_branch": "gxo_spanx_flowery_branch" }, "map_link_boundary": "Existing application record references only; no incoming magnet supplier, grade, batch or surveyed coordinates inferred." }, "readiness": { "data_file": "data/equipment-readiness.json", "scope_en": "All twelve stage records, five project comparisons, the separate outstanding equipment commitment and all thirty-four source records from the final equipment packet. Complete original fields remain inspectable.", "scope_zh": "最终设备资料包中的全部十二项工序记录、五项项目比较、单独的设备合同剩余承诺与三十四项来源。可展开查看全部原始字段。", "map_aliases": { "equip_sep_ndpr_mp": "mountain-pass", "equip_sep_hree_whitemesa": "white_mesa", "equip_metal_mp": "independence", "project_evac": "evac_sumter", "project_white_mesa_hree": "white_mesa", "project_usar_blacksburg": "blacksburg", "project_noveon": "noveon" }, "map_link_boundary": "Only existing named facility anchors are linked. Mountain Pass is the colocated separation context; its mine marker is not a surveyed separation-machine pin. Consarc/Vulcan RTP and Northlake do not acquire invented pins; their source dossiers remain accessible. Factory tour links are explanatory process context, not verified installed-machine reconstructions.", "monetary_boundary": "Project investment, capex, financing and outstanding contractual commitment are separate types. Records are not additive; no per-machine quote, country cost multiplier or national investment total is derived." } } }